Global investors double down on Gulf as 82% back region’s economic outlook

Investors across the US, UK, Germany, France and China express strong confidence in the Gulf’s growth prospects, with most expecting the region’s economic importance to rise despite geopolitical tensions, a new survey finds.

More than eight in 10 global investors are confident in the Gulf’s economic outlook, according to a new Consulum-HarrisX survey, signalling resilient international appetite for the region despite heightened geopolitical tensions.

The poll of 2,043 active investors across the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France and China found that 82 percent were confident in the Gulf’s future economic outlook, while 69 percent rated the region as a “great” or “good” place to invest or do business right now.

Confidence was highest among investors in China, at 91 percent, followed by the US and UK at 84 percent each. Germany recorded confidence of 80 percent, while France stood at 71 percent.

The findings suggest global investors are continuing to view the Gulf as a long-term growth market, even as the region faces uncertainty linked to the US/Israel-Iran conflict and wider concerns over security, energy flows and trade routes.

“The international investment community sees the Gulf’s economic story as one of sustained momentum,” James Davies, CEO of Consulum, said in the report. “Investors are not reacting to a geopolitical moment, they are making a long-term verdict on the strength and resilience of what the GCC has built.”

The survey also found that 70 percent of international investors expect the GCC’s global economic importance to grow over the next five years.

Investors in the UK were the most bullish on the Gulf’s rising economic role, with 78 percent expecting the GCC’s global importance to increase, followed by the US at 74 percent, China at 70 percent, Germany at 65 percent and France at 61 percent.

The report said the results suggest an investment community that is “not retreating from the Gulf” but is instead watching closely, remaining committed and expecting the region to emerge stronger from the current period.

Global investors expect Gulf growth to outlast Iran tensions

The geopolitical findings were also broadly positive for the region.

Seventy-one percent of global investors said they expect the US/Israel-Iran conflict to end in a negotiated agreement, suggesting most investors view current tensions as a passing risk rather than a structural threat to long-term stability.

That expectation was strongest in the UK, where 77 percent of investors said they expected a negotiated outcome. The figure stood at 71 percent in the US, 70 percent in France, 69 percent in Germany and 67 percent in China.

Investors also want Gulf states to play a role in diplomacy. The survey found that 71 percent of global investors want Gulf states directly involved in the process, either at the negotiating table or as behind-the-scenes facilitators.

Of those surveyed, 32 percent said Gulf states should be at the negotiating table, while 39 percent said they should act as facilitators.

Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, said global investors supported a US-Iran deal that reflected input from the region and provided safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

“They are exhibiting patience, with a majority indicating they either see continued progress in the negotiations or are optimistic a deal will likely succeed,” Nesho said.

The latest investor survey follows a separate Consulum-HarrisX poll conducted in May across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, which found strong domestic confidence across the Gulf.

According to that survey, 90 percent of respondents across the GCC said their country was on the right track, while 89 percent expressed confidence in the future economic outlook.

Public confidence in national economies was above 90 percent in each of the four markets surveyed, the report said.

In the UAE, 93 percent of respondents said they trusted the government to protect the country from the consequences of the conflict, while 91 percent said they trusted the government to manage regional crises.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents said national development programmes should continue as planned, while most of the remainder favoured adapting them rather than delaying them. Seventy-two percent said national programmes were more important in the current environment.

Ranulph Murray, Head of Consulum Intelligence, said the investor and public surveys showed an alignment between foreign capital and domestic confidence.

“Read alongside our May survey, two different audiences – global investors and the Gulf’s own residents – are reaching similar conclusions,” Murray said. “That alignment of outside capital and domestic sentiment is itself a measure of how confidence in the Gulf is structural and settled.”